Tuesday, 10 November 2009

In The Works: Big Nog vs. Cain, Lil' Nog vs. Cane

Hey, back again to discuss some recently announced fights and get us up to date, particularly the Nogueira brothers vs. Cain & Cane. So, without further ado:

Antonio Rodridgo 'Minotauro' Nogueira (32-5-1) vs. Cain Velasquez (7-0) - UFC 108

I haven't loved and hated a fight in equal measure this much since Wanderlei Silva fought Chuck Liddell. I love the match-making here, the winner is the undeniable number one contender to Brock Lesnar, whether or not he fights Shane Carwin. Not to mention the styles make a great fight, as the BJJ technical wizard faces the aggressive wrestler while both have more than competent stand-up. However I hate the fact that, barring an unlikely draw, one of those guys is going to lose. From Minotauro's position, a loss doesn't affect him too much, as he slots straight back into a rematch with Frank Mir in summer 2010. But Big Nog vs. Lesnar is for me, the undisputed big fight at heavyweight in the UFC, worldwide too barring Fedor vs. Lesnar. I want to see that fight more than Shogun vs. Machida II, more than Evans vs. Rampage and more than Belfort vs. Silva. It's a dream fight that I'd love to see made on the grandest stage while both men are at the top end of the division. But then we have Velasquz who, of the two Cain trains I'm looking at today, I'm more likely to be found riding. One of the last top end undefeated fighters in all of MMA currently, Velasquez is aggressive and looks to finish the fight, two admirable qualities in any fighter.

I hate picking this fight, but for me, it's a case of Velasquez riding a decision or Nogueira catching a submission, similar to the Randy Couture fight. Big Nog won't be able to buck the heavier, more compact Velasquez like he could Couture, but Cain is also less experienced, so could be susceptible to Minotauro's elite level BJJ. Plus he can struggle to finish. I like them both, but I think Nogueira is going to win, with Cain coming back stronger than ever en route to an eventual title shot.

Antonio Rogerio 'Minotoro' Nogueira (17-3) vs. Luiz Arthur Cane (10-1) - UFC 106

Finally Lil' Nog gets the chance to shine in the UFC on a stacked UFC 106 card. Cane will be no pushover however and I can see this going to a decision. It'll come down to how well Nogueira can adapt to the cage and dictate where the fight goes, because 15 minutes on the feet favours Cane. I think it's a close decision win for Nogueira, perhaps by split decision and so obviously I wouldn't be surprised to see Cane take the W.

More interestingly are the implications for both fighters afterwards. It wouldn't surprise me to see the winner of this fight being matched with the winner of the main event (Griffin vs. Ortiz) and vice versa for the loser. I think that could mean Nogueira vs. Griffin for a title opportunity at 205lbs and Cane vs. Griffin in a relevancy battle. I would throw Rashad Evans in there, but I'm pretty sure his next fight after Thiago Silva will be against a returning 'Rampage' Jackson, not to mention the bout with Silva is far from a foregone conclusion.

Mirko 'Cro Cop' Filipovic (25-7-2) vs. 'Big' Ben Rothwell (30-7) - UFC 110

Did I just mention a relevancy battle? I think we've got another one here. It's hard to believe that just a few years after being one of the top heavyweights on the planet, Cro Cop is being shipped off to Australia for his next fight, and it's not even the co-main event. Obviously there's more to it than that, kick boxing has a pretty big following down under so it's no surprise they stick one of it's biggest legends on the card.

As for the fight, everytime Cro Cop steps into the cage I predict a win and I'm doing it here. Not because Cro Cop is going to be back to his best, but because it's sad to see him lose. No knock to Ben Rothwell, but if Cro Cop loses this one, I'd say he at least needs to look at a move to 205lbs. Unfortunately if he is beaten again, there'll be the calls for his retirement, which is just depressing to see. If Rothwell wins, he'll probably get matched up against Velasquez again, which is bad for him. If he loses, he'll see out his contract on the pre-lims and that could be that. Again, bad for him.

Cung Le (6-0) vs. Scott Smith (16-6) - Strikeforce: Evolution

Like Jake Shields said, this certainly could be interpreted as Cung Le ducking him, but I think it's more like Scott Coker and Strikeforce protecting him. Shields vs. Le right now isn't the draw that Fedor vs. Rogers, Carano vs. Cyborg were, or the rumoured Mousasi vs. Henderson fight could be. Shields isn't a star right now, while Cung Le hasn't been seen for nearly two years. If I'm Strikeforce, I give Cung the chance of a highlight reel KO against Smith to put him in the fans heads, and Shields a fight that can make him look good, then have them clash in summer 2010, when Cung has his next film out the way. As for the fight, Cung Le has the educated feet and should win, but Smith could play spoiler with his heavy hands.

Nate Marquadt (29-8-2) vs. Chael Sonnen (24-10-1) - UFC 110

Two fighters squaring off, looking to try and tempt Anderson Silva into fighting one of them. Sorry, but I just can't see this leading to a new number one contender. As those that know me will testify, I'm not a Marquadt fan. I'll admit that the Maia KO was awesome, but that's about it. Like Jon Fitch, Josh Koscheck and others, he just doesn't do a lot for me. While I respect the rankings behind the sport, we also have to be realistic and draw the line between sport and business. Anyone who would pick Silva vs. Marquadt II over Silva vs. Belfort is either lying, or a complete purist and I salute you for it. The same goes for Chael Sonnen; I respect him massively as a fighter and for de-railing the 'Okami Title Shot' bandwagon, but if he were to challenge for the title, it just feels like a waste of what could be one of the last four fights of MMA's greatest ever fighter. Seriously, Silva vs. Sonnen? The co-main behind a GSP or Lesnar fight maybe, but it is in no way, shape or form a headliner.

So yeah, both talented guys (particularly Nate the Great), but this is just going to decide the best middleweight not about to get a title shot. If you can't see it or don't agree, look at the usually very vocal Dana White. You'd think he'd publically criticise a fighter for picking their fights, but when Anderson said he didn't want Hendo or Nate, there was silence. He sees the line between business and sport.

As a side note, I just can't believe the state of the middleweight division compared to a year ago. We had Silva the champ with contenders ranging from Maia to Bisping, Marquadt to Hendo, plus Okami among others. Now it's such a shallow division you can see the bottom.

Other News

Shinya Aoki to Strikeforce in 2010: There's been a lot of talk about Aoki to North America recently and Strikeforce definitely makes the most sense. The way I see it, Aoki is an excellent grappler, but wouldn't make it past round two with BJ Penn. The striking difference is just too much, whereas in Strikeforce he can face Melendez and Thompson, who'll provide him with obstacles that he can overcome.

Jorge Santiago is TKO'd at Sengoku 11th Battle: And here is why champions in non-title fights is complete nonsense. How is Santiago supposed to be taken seriously as the middleweight champ when he lost his last fight? It's a Japanese tradition that is sneaking into western MMA through Strikeforce (Mousasi vs. Soko) and just makes no sense whatsoever. Imagine if it was Shane Carwin who got mono instead, so they threw togther Lesnar vs. Gonzaga instead at short notice in a non-title bout and Lesnar got KO'd. Even Lesnar's huge drawing power would be dented massively. If you have a fighter fighting in a weight class that he's champion of, it's for the belt. If he's not a credible challenger then that's the promotions issue for not building the division correctly.

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That's all for now and we're pretty much up-to-date with the news. I'll be weighing in with my UFC 105 thoughts before Saturday hopefully, and with another edition of Passing the Guard sometime next week. Early thoughts are around either main event rematches or the possibility of the UFC 'Franchising' around the world. Let me know in the comments section if there's one you'd rather read.

Till then,
ZJ Penn

Monday, 9 November 2009

Passing the Guard: The Sixth Division?

So for my first 'real' blog post, I figured I'd give my take on the idea a lot of people are throwing around that; "The UFC needs a 225lb Cruiserweight division". I disagree, but not as vehemently as some people do right now.

First of all, mixed martial arts right now doesn't need anything. It's the fastest growing sport in the world, has a legion of passionate fans and a global company leading the way, pushing it into the mainstream. Right now the UFC are raking in millions of dollars and shattering records, the DREAM/Strikeforce collaboration is creating competition, the WEC are creating a better world for the little guys and there's tons of local promotions worldwide that are sustainable. Seems to me like the current unified weight classes are doing a good job.

The main argument seems to be that it's essential for the growth of the sport and the heavyweight division, historically combat sports cash cow. To me, that's just not true, for a couple of reasons. First up, the complaint is that the giants now entering the Octagon are just too big for the smaller heavyweight to compete effectively, based on the long-time assumption that when skill is even, size is the deciding factor. What I'd suggest to these people is to take a look around, how many of these mammoths are tearing it up at 265lbs? Brock Lesnar, Shane Carwin and, erm, who? Outside the UFC and there's just Brett Rogers, who just lost to one of these 'disadvantaged' 225lbers. The fact of the matter is that right now, going into 2010, these superhuman monsters are less than one in a thousand.

Which comfortably ties into the next point, what are the general solutions to this argument?

1) Bring in the largely embarrassing 'Super Heavyweight' division.
2) Bring in the 225lb Cruiserweight class.

1) Re-read the last paragraph, I identified three top fighters who'd fit this weight class. You might get one or two more, but I can't see someone building a credible top ten. By introducing a 265lb-plus weight class, all you're essentially doing is excluding Brock Lesnar from competing with the top heavyweights. Imagine, Lesnar wins a 4-man tournament comprised of him, Carwin, Rogers and, say, Marcus Jones for the SHW title. Then what? Exactly. You end up with UFC 130: Lesnar vs. Choi/Sapp/Zuluzinho. That might appeal in some grotesque, circus sideshow way, but it should not be on the resumé of a mainstream sport. I tried for ten minutes to come up with how this could be compared to other sports, but couldn't think of a single one, because it's a dumb idea. Other glaring problems with this solution:

i) General poor fight quality.

ii) Inevitably low PPV revenues (look at half the TUF 10 fights, would you pay for that?),

iii) The lack of solid fighters means it's only applicable to one promotion.

2) The other fix is to introduce a 225lb division. A better idea, but still you've got problems. The heavyweight division, particularly in the west, has struggled for a long time. Only now is it starting to come close to something like the LHW division...and people want to break it up? Makes no sense to me. Perhaps further down the line, but for the next few years let's just see what can be done with the fighters out there. Other glaring problems here:

i) A lot of the top, successful heavyweights fit this weight class already. Dos Santos, Velasquez, and Big Nog, aren't having too much trouble putting away other fighters.

ii) The age-old boxing argument. Fragmentation is a slippery-slope, who can't see calls for a 225lb division followed by a 195lb Super Middleweight class etc. What a lot of people don't realise is that, yes UFC belt holders are the standard bearers, but as competition increases this will change. Assuming we have belts at 155, 170, 185, 195, 205, 225 and 265 (let's not even go into 145 and lower), that's seven titles. Now imagine Strikeforce, DREAM or whoever becoming accepted competitors with deep, talented divisions. That's fourteen belts, plus another seven for every other company who makes the grade. Starting to look like the sweet science much?

iii) Less title defences or more shows. This obviously depends on your individual stance, but Fighters Only magazine counted a total of 20 UFC events in a 12-month period, I think one every 18 days. Can you keep up with that financially or mentally?

I can imagine what people might be thinking, "I thought you weren't 'vehemently' against a 225lb class?". I'm not, I just think there's a lot of things that need addressing first before we look at the weight classes. Fighter purses, for one, wouldn't be a bad place to start. How about the quality of refereeing, particularly at UFC level? Just saying, there's lots of places to start.

I'm also not blind to the benefits a 225lb class creates either. The opportunity for big LHW's who can't make middleweight (Rampage, Tito and Forrest I'm looking at you) to fight at a different weight and still be competitive if their options become stale at 205lbs being a good positive.

If this were to go ahead in the immediate future, I wouldn't be out there spamming Open Guard and Internet message boards with negativity, I'd be happy providing it was done properly. I'd like to see it trialled somewhere first, to see how not only the 225lb fights panned out, but how the 265lb fights with the big guys go too. Perhaps the UFC could hold 225lb catch-weight bouts, or introducing the division in the WEC is always an option if they don't want to confuse their main audience. Although that might look pretty crazy having a Cruiserweight bout wedged between fights at 135 and 145.

So that's my opinion on the matter. If I were in charge, I'd have the idea on constant review for a few years to see if the heavies do start to dominate, but not implement it just yet.

As I said before, this is a blog for a fan to talk to fans, so hit me up on the comments section with your opinion. This thing's two-way.

Till then,
ZJ Penn

(Oh, and I'm well aware that the blog is looking pretty drab. I hope to glam it up in the future.)

Welcome to Open Guard

Hey, thanks for dropping in on Open Guard, my (mostly) dedicated MMA blog. Given that I've done next to zero advertising for this thing, chances are you're here by accident. But ignore that and hang around for a while, get to know the place. First things first, what is Open Guard? In all honesty, it's a bit of everything, from opinions and thoughts, to hopefully down the line interviews with fighters from around the MMA spectrum.

Next up, who am I? I'm a fan. Not a reporter, a journalist, a self-proclaimed expert or anything like that. Just a fan. As we all know, back in the "Dark Days" of mixed martial arts it was the voice of the fans and the power of the Internet that kept this young sport alive and so it's in that vein that Open Guard is born. A place for a fan to talk to other fans.

What can you expect? Tricky question, but the aim is to check in weekly for a look at the news in the MMA world. Again, this isn't a journalist thing, I'm not going to pretend to be out researching the latest facts and figures. It'll be a case of taking the stuff you already know from a fans perspective and adding a little bit of colour to it. Then, depending how things go, I'll hopefully have some fighter interviews, a couple of guest columns, some collaboration with other fans and so on.

So for now, that's all. I'll be checking back in soon with the first 'proper' post.

Till then,
ZJ Penn